Europe's Population Decline

The UN says many of the nations of Eastern Europe will lose from a third to half of their populations by the middle of the century. Low birth rates, relatively short life expectancies, and high emigration are the causes. The head of the UN population division tells RFE/RL that low birth rates and the global AIDS epidemic probably will slow increases in the Earth's population substantially.

Prague, 27 February 2003 (RFE/RL) -- Joseph Chamie, director of the UN Population Division, has some startling news for Bulgaria, Estonia, Georgia, Latvia, Russia, and Ukraine. At a time when the world's population is growing, these countries probably will lose a third to half of their population size by mid-century.

The UN Population Division, based at the United Nations in New York, is charged with tracking, measuring, and forecasting world population and population changes. At the beginning of this century, it estimated that the earth's population would be 9.3 billion by the year 2050. The agency has just issued its latest revisions to that forecast.

Chamie said the projected drop in Eastern Europe's population is because of low birth rates, lagging life expectancies, and growing outward migration from these countries. "There are only three ways you can affect population change: births, death, and migration. And you have all three operating here [in Eastern Europe]. You have fewer births. Birthrates in these countries are extremely low, some of the lowest in the world. Their death rates, their life expectancies, have not improved as in Western countries. They have stagnated and in some cases gotten worse. And, third, you have a great deal of out-migration in countries such as the Russian Federation and Ukraine and other countries to Western, more economically dynamic countries," he explained.

The Population Division's social scientists amass volumes of data on trends, public health, birth and death rates. But in the end, their findings also must rest on assumptions and subjective judgments of the kinds of decisions individual citizens will be making. How, for example, does a woman decide whether to have children and how many children to have?

The Population Division begins with the simple logic that to maintain a population, each woman of child-bearing age, say 15 to 49, must have an average of two children simply for replacement purposes -- one for herself and one for her mate. In countries, such as those in Eastern Europe where population contraction is forecast, the expected average is 1.2 or less.

Chamie said this appears to be a product of women finding it essential to supplement the family income by earning a wage instead of staying home with children. Prospective mothers seem also to be deterred by lack of adequate housing for a larger family and by the difficulty of feeding and clothing additional dependents.

"The fertility being lower in many of the countries [is] due to the same factors that we're seeing throughout most of the developed world. Trying to balance especially women in the labor force and having children with worsening economic situations in many of the Eastern European countries, a shortage of adequate housing, a limit on the income that they would need to have to survive," Chamie said.

The Population Division estimates that there are 6.3 billion people in the world today and that the world population is growing at a rate of 1.2 percent a year. Six countries -- India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and the United States -- account for half of that growth, India alone for more than a fifth.

The UN agency says that if fertility were to remain constant in all countries at current levels, the population of the globe would more than double by 2050, reaching 12.8 billion.

Chamie said, however, that his experts are projecting a lower growth rate, and in fact are revising downward their earlier forecasts. "This revision indicates a world population by mid-century of 8.9 billion. This is roughly 400 million less than we projected two years ago. The reasons for this decline, or difference, of around 400 million are due to two reasons. First, increasing deaths due to AIDS and, second, we are projecting assuming fewer births in the future," he said.

About half of the 400 million downward adjustment results from expectations of accelerating deaths in an AIDS epidemic that is raging through sub-Saharan Africa and other developing countries. Deliberate decisions to postpone or avoid parenthood through family planning will be significant also.

Chamie said he believes that education and greater knowledge will slow the AIDS scourge a bit but that it will continue to have a tremendous impact on world population. "We assume in our future projections that family-planning programs and family-planning services will continue to be provided, and an increasing number of people will be using planning as they wish to. In addition, we assume that up to [the year] 2010, prevalence rates of HIV-AIDS [will] remain basically unchanged, but subsequent to that we see decreasing rates, which reflect changing behavior in terms of [the risk of] catching HIV virus."

The Population Division prophets do not, in their most recent projections, factor in the possibility of a major medical breakthrough to cure or immunize against AIDS. Chamie said that is in the works, however. "Our projections assume that there will be a behavioral change. We do not see in these projections necessarily a vaccine coming out in the near future. Therefore, if that does happen, of course, we would have to change our projections. And we are going to be doing a scenario assuming that there is a vaccine developed, let's say, if three to five years -- what would be the impact of this? -- but we haven't completed that scenario."

The UN Population Division forecasts that by 2050, the populations of the more-developed nations will have been declining for 20 years. It says the populations of the less-developed nations will still be on the rise.
posted by: omar

We Can Stop Global Warming

Scientists now tell us that the crisis of global warming is even worse than their earlier projections. Daily front-page headlines of environmental disasters give an inkling of what we can expect in the future, multiplied many times over: droughts, floods, severe weather disturbances, loss of drinking water and farmland and conflicts over declining natural resources.
Yet the situation is by no means hopeless. Major advances and technological breakthroughs are being made in the United States and throughout the world that are giving us the tools to cut carbon emissions dramatically, break our dependency on fossil fuels and move to energy efficiency and sustainable energy. In fact, the truth rarely uttered in Washington is that with strong governmental leadership the crisis of global warming is not only solvable; it can be done while improving the standard of living of the people of this country and others around the world. And it can be done with the knowledge and technology that we have today; future advances will only make the task easier.
What should we be doing now?
First, we need strong legislation that dramatically cuts back on carbon emissions. The Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act (S. 309), a bill that I introduced with Senator Barbara Boxer and that now has eighteen co-sponsors, would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by the year 2050.
Second, If the federal government begins the process of transforming our energy system by investing heavily in energy efficiency and sustainable energy, we can accomplish the 80 percent carbon reduction level and, at the same time, create millions of high-paying jobs.
Energy efficiency is the easiest, quickest and least expensive path toward the lowering of carbon emissions. My hometown of Burlington, Vermont, despite strong economic growth, consumes no more electricity today than it did sixteen years ago because of a successful effort to make our homes, offices, schools and other buildings more energy-efficient. In California, which has a growing economy, electric consumption per person has remained steady over the past twenty years because of that state's commitment to energy efficiency.
Numerous studies tell us that retrofitting older buildings and establishing strong efficiency standards for new construction can cut fuel and energy consumption by at least 40 percent. Those savings would increase with the adoption of new technologies such as LED light bulbs, which consume as little as 10 percent of the electricity that incandescent bulbs do and last twenty years.
Transportation must also be addressed in a serious manner. It is insane that we are driving cars today that get the same twenty-five miles per gallon that US cars did twenty years ago. If Europe and Japan can engineer their vehicles to average more than forty-four miles per gallon, we can do at least as well. Simply raising fuel-efficiency standards to forty miles per gallon would save roughly the same amount of oil as we import from Saudi Arabia and would dramatically lower carbon emissions. We should also rebuild and expand our decaying rail and subway systems and provide energy-efficient buses in rural America so that travelers have an alternative to the automobile.
Sustainable energies such as wind, solar and geothermal have tremendous potential and often cost no more than fossil fuels (and, in some cases, even less). Increased production and research should cause sustainable energy prices to decline steeply in the future.
Posted by Liban Ali

STUDY SKILLS

DEVELOPING CONCENTRATION
Many students often fall into this trap thinking that if they were to sit down and study for long hours, they will learn more. However, what actually matters during your study time is not the quantity or the amount of time you spend on studying but rather, the quality or your level of concentration and understanding of whatever you are studying. Here are several tips to help you develop your concentration so that you can have quality study hour.
Preventing Procrastination
For many students, the most difficult part of studying is the beginning- getting started. Therefore, they end up procrastinating. However, this should be avoided as the English proverb goes, “A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step”, so here are some suggestions to help you prevent or conquer procrastination
1. Start by setting small goals (objectives)
2. Evaluate your goals (objectives), performance and achievement
3. Break large task into smaller parts
4. Set a time limite
5. Reward your self
6. Bounce back, push forward
7. Look at yourself in the mirror
Dealing with Distractions
Have you ever been in a situation where you thought you have found the perfect hour to study and right at that moment, everything seems to take place? Your notes are missing, your roommate needs someone to talk to, you realize that you do not know how to solve the equation and even the background music that you were listening to seems to annoy you. All these distractions seem to be testing your patience and perseverance to have a productive study hour but all is not lost. Read on to find out more about distractions that might occur and how to deal with them.
Dealing with Internal Distractions
Internal distractions are distractions that come from within us- our thoughts and emotions. These distractions are sometimes more difficult to handle compared to external distractions because we cannot see it but we can feel and sense it. It takes a lot of self-will to conquer these distracting thoughts and emotions so that you will have a productive and quality study time. Read on to find out more about how you can deal with random thoughts, wandering thoughts, personal worries and anxiety.
A student's life is not a bed of roses. One can be burdened by a sea of problems; academic, coping with university life, loneliness, home sick, making friends, financial and so on. These worries could be overwhelming especially for first year students who are still struggling to cope with the change of environment. More often than not, it is the student's academic performance that suffers.
Solution
If you find yourself in such a situation, it is highly advisable for you to speak to someone about it- someone who can give you sound and helpful advice like your parents or even your academic advisor (PA).
You could also contact the Career and Counseling Centre (PKK), UTM at 07-5530394 if you feel that you need professional help or just someone to talk to. Speaking to someone about your worries can help ease your mind off it (or even reach a solution to it) thus giving you the ability to focus on your studies.
· Dealing with External Distractions
· External distractions are distractions that come from your surrounding environment and may take different forms. Different people find different environment distracting. For example someone who likes studying in silence might find even the slightest whisper a distraction. The following tips are some guidelines as to what you could do to deal with external distractions. You may want to experiment with the possible solutions and then make changes to suit your personal study preferences.
Audio Distractions
Audio distractions can refer to background music or even the voices of people around you. The tolerance of this distraction differs highly from individual to individual. Some people require total silence in order to be able to study while some can study even in a busy cafeteria.
Solution
Depending on your tolerance level, here are some steps you could take to deal with audio distractions:
Find out your personal preference. Do you study better with background music? Can you study with people around you talking?
Set a specific study time and let those who are living with you (family, spouse, friends, etc.) know. Be sure to inform them that you would love to have some silence during that few hours.
Find alternative study places that suit your preference such as the library (if you prefer silence).
If the music in your background captures your attention more than whatever you are reading, be firm and switch it off. Distraction often gets the better of you.
Visual Distractions
You might think you are able to study with the television or the computer on but 15 minutes into your study time, you realize that your eyes are glued at the screen and not your book. Some people even find it difficult to concentrate when facing a door or window which opens to a busy corridor.
Solution
Depending on your tolerance level, here are some things you can do:
Do not fool yourself into believing that you can continue studying effectively with the television or computer switched on.
Be firm and switch it off.
Sit with your back facing the door or window so that you cannot see what is happening just beyond the door or window.
Find an alternative study area that has minimal visual distractions such as television, people walking around and whatever that will distract you from your studies.
Phone Calls
Life is full of temptations and distractions. When you are in the mood to study, that is when your phone rings and it completely takes away your attention as ignoring it is just as difficult as resuming whatever you were doing.
Solution
If you know you cannot resist checking or receiving any incoming calls or messages, here is what you should do:
Pick up the call and simply say 'I'm sorry, I cannot talk right now. I'm studying." You must not feel obliged to talk every time there is a call.
Better still, set your hand phone to silent or switch it off for the few hours during your study time. It takes a large amount of discipline to stop yourself from taking a 'peek' at your hand phone so this is the best way of doing it. You can always check your phone during your short breaks. However, do not use this as an excuse to take a break as you will end up taking 'short breaks' every minute or so.
Set a specific time for studying and inform those who call you often about it so that they will avoid calling or sending you messages during that few hours. There is nothing embarrassing about saying that you need some personal time to study.
Visitors
Staying in a hostel means that there is always the possibility of someone knocking on your door to ask for help or to talk. You do not have to feel obliged to entertain everyone who knocks on your door especially if you have more important task at hand. It also does not mean that you are being rude or snobbish if you say no to visitors or people asking for help. Learning how to weight the request and if needed, to say no, is a precious time-saving skill and it prevents distractions.
Solution
Here are some suggestions on what you could do to avoid unwanted or unwelcomed visits:
Put up a sign that says "I'm studying" or "Do Not Disturb". Most people should understand what that means.
For people who do not understand what that means, you will have to learn to say 'NO' politely.
Inform those who have the habit of 'dropping by just for a chat' about your study hours and choose another time so that you can hang out and chat with them without any worries at the back of your head.

POSTED BY LIBAN ALI

Some people believe that the earth is flat and there’s a holes at the poles.

Flat Earth and Hollow Earth


Some people still believe that the earth is flat.

And a few believe that the earth is hollow. Such people are an easy target. There are all sorts of evidence that the earth is round, but not hollow, including common sense.
Flat Earth

In Columbus' Mistake I said this:
Columbus obviously knew that the world was round. Later, Magellan's ships sailed all the way around the earth. That proved that the world was round. But that had already been proved, back in Greek times. Most educated people knew that the world was round. The most convincing proof was that you could see the earth's shadow on the moon, during a lunar eclipse. During partial eclipses (and at the beginning and end of a total eclipse) the edge of the earth's shadow is always round, a portion of a circle. For this to happen every time, from all angles, the earth would have to be a sphere.

The way that a ship disappears over the horizon, long before it would appear to be a dimensionless point, was another strong piece of evidence showing that the earth was round.
Eratosthenes' measurement, whether it was accurate or not, was a further proof that the world was round.
Similar to Eratosthenes' observation is the fact that people at different latitudes see different constellations at night. You can measure your latitude by measuring how far the North Star (or the Sun) is above the horizon. People south of the equator cannot even see the North Star, as it is below the horizon. The stars could have been used to measure the size of the earth, in the same way that Eratosthenes used the sun. This would be a somewhat sounder measurement, as the stars are much farther away than the sun is.
The only reason that people might doubt that the earth is round is that it is huge, and it looks flat locally. A person's first impression is that it is flat. Consider an ant, on a fully inflated basketball, who thinks that the basketball is flat. Upon seeing the evidence of roundness, a few people have argued that maybe light is bent in weird ways, so that a flat earth may show evidence of being round. Such a theory has to be bizarre and elaborate, as well as being stupid.

Hollow earth


Well, how about a hollow (round) earth? Some strange people believe that there are huge holes at the poles, through which UFOs, or fairies, or demons travel onto the Earth. And of course there is some gigantic cover-up.
A huge hollow earth would collapse under its own weight. It would collapse into a round, solid earth, with a molten core, actually. Newtonian physics dictates that. You can calculate the mass of the earth, with a little elementary physics, if you feel like it. And you will find that the earth is roughly as dense as molten iron. It is not empty space; it is molten iron (mostly).

Hollow universe

I see that there are some people who believe that the earth is hollow, and that we live on the inside. For these people, the entire visible universe is also inside the earth. The laws of physics and math become amazingly distorted in order to make the situation appear to be that we are on the outside of the earth. As bizarre as this idea sounds, it is impossible to disprove. The only thing against such a hollow earth is that it is ridiculously complicated compared to the real, relatively uncomplicated universe. That makes the choice easy for scientists. The real universe is much much more likely to be true.

posted by: omar kodah

joke~~~

Little Janice was not the best student in Sunday school. Usually she slept through class. One day the teacher called on her while she was napping, “Tell me Janice, who created the universe?” When Janice didn’t stir, little Johnny, a boy seated in the chair behind her, took a pin and jabbed her in the rear.
“God Almighty!” shouted Janice and the teacher said, “Very good” and Janice fell back asleep.
A while later the teacher asked Janice, “Who is our Lord and Saviour.” But, Janice didn’t even stir from her slumber. Once again, Johnny came to the rescue and stuck her again.
“Jesus Christ!” shouted Janice and the teacher said, “Very good,” and Janice fell back asleep.
Then the teacher asked Janice a third question. “What did Eve say to Adam after she had her twenty-third child?” and again, Johnny jabbed her with the pin.
This time Janice jumped up and shouted, “If you stick me with that thing one more time, I’ll break it in half and stick it up your ass!”
… the teacher fainted!
What'd You Think?

The world’s most interesting UNESCO World Heritage Site

As is commonly known, a site has to demonstrate such lofty ideals as “outstanding cultural or natural importance to the common heritage of mankind” to qualify for UNESCO’s hallowed list. That list includes such luminaries as The Persepolis, Memphis and its Necropolis, the Historic centre of St Petersburg and last but not least, Malaysia’s very own Kinabalu Park.
However, possibly no other World Heritage Site is as interesting as the Khajuraho group of monuments, in northern India.
This particular site, and other World Heritage Site might depicts erotic sculptures, like this one:
But do any other World Heritage Site depicts bestiality?
The temple was built in a span of a hundred years, between 950 and 1050, hence this could be a prime example of medieval porn. It was built by the Chandela kings in a “truly inspired bout of creativity.” Apparently, the Chandelas were followers of the Tantric cult which believes that gratification of earthly desires is a step towards attaining the ultimate liberation.
Before you rush to the travel agent, wikipedia adds that:
It must be emphasized that Khajuraho Temples, do not contain sexual themes inside the Temple premises or near the deity but only on external carvings. They portray that for seeing the deity, one must leave his sexual desires outside the Temple. They also depict that the inner deity of the Temple is pure like the soul (atman) which is unaffected by desire, destiny etc, whereas the external curvature and carvings of the Temples depict the bodily changes that occur in us.
Only as many as 10% carvings contain sexual themes, not between any deities but between ordinary humans. The rest depict the common man’s life of those days. For example ladies applying makeup, musicians, potters, farmers etc. All these are away from temple deities. They give the message that one should always have God as the central point in one’s life even though one is engaged in worldly activities.
In Khajuraho Temples, the idols of Shiva, Nandi, Goddess Durga, Incarnations of Vishnu etc are fully clothed

Powerful role model for today’s youth

David Lu, former gangster, murderer, sentenced to 38 years imprisonment, now a Christian preacher.
An expert in tae kwon do and boxing, a member of what is still Taiwan’s largest organised crime syndicate, the Bamboo Union. His job was working as the gang’s debt collector - threatening force to get people to pay back money they owed from gambling.
It was during his second term in jail that he converted to Christianity. At the time he was receiving letters from a Christian girl, the sister of a man he had recruited into the gang. The turning point came with the sudden death of a prison inmate who had become a mentor figure to David. It forced him to reassess his life - and turn to God.
When he was finally released from jail in 1979 - cleared of two charges of kidnapping and robbery - he entered a seminary, where he was joined by the Christian girl who had written to him in prison.
The two fell in love and later married.
His remarkable story of bad boy-turned-good was described in his autobiography, The Sword and The Sheath, and inspired many in Taiwan.

Posted By Liban Ali

Weight Loss Plan

A man calls a company and orders their 5-day, 10 lb. weight loss program.
The next day, there's a knock on the door and there stands before him a voluptuous, athletic, 19 year old babe dressed in nothing but a pair of Nike running shoes and a sign around her neck.
She introduces herself as a representative of the weight loss company.
The sign reads, "If you can catch me, you can have me."
Without a second thought, he takes off after her.
A few miles later huffing and puffing, he finally gives up.
The same girl shows up for the next four days and the same thing happens.
On the fifth day, he weighs himself and is delighted to find he has lost 10 lbs. as promised.
He calls the company and orders their 5-day/20 pound program.
The next day there's a knock at the door and there stands the most stunning and beautiful woman he has ever seen in his life.
She is wearing nothing but Reebok running shoes and a sign around her neck that reads, "If you catch me you can have me."
Well, he's out the door after her like a shot.
This girl is in excellent shape and he does his best, but no such luck.
So for the next four days, the same routine happens with him gradually getting in better and better shape.
Much to his delight on the fifth day when he weighs himself, he discovers that he has lost another 20 lbs. as promised.
He decides to go for broke and calls the company to order the 7-day/50 pound program.
"Are you sure?" asks the representative on the phone. "This is our most rigorous program."
"Absolutely," he replies, "I haven't felt this good in years."
The next day there's a knock at the door; and when he opens it he finds a huge muscular guy standing there wearing nothing but pink running shoes and a sign around his neck that reads,"If I catch you, you are mine!!!"
He lost 63 pounds that week.

Posted By Liban Ali